Global music revenues forecast to hit $18.9 Bn in 2018 according to media and technology analysts, MIDiA Research. Full year results from the major labels and IFPI won’t be available until March/April next year but Warner Music Group has published its full year results to 30th September 2018 here. MIDiA has produced forecasts for 2018 based on the first three quarters of the year and early indicators for Q4 using data from record labels, national trade associations and also confidential data from the leading Artist Direct / DIY platforms.
Recorded music revenue will hit $18.9 Bn this year
This represents an increase of 8.2% on 2017 which is a slight lower growth rate than 2016–2017, which was up 9%. However, net new revenue ($1.4 Bn) is almost exactly the same amount as one year previously. The recorded music market appears to be settled into a steady, strong growth pattern.
Streaming revenue up to $9.6 Bn
The 41% growth rate of 2017 may be gone, replaced by 29%, but the absolute amount of new revenue generated was $2.2 billion, as with the recorded music total, the same as 2017. There was enough growth in the big mature streaming markets – the US especially – to ensure that streaming continued to plot a strong course in 2018. Though the fact that total revenues grew by $0.8 billion less than streaming revenue, indicates the pace at which legacy formats continue to decline.
Artists Direct the big winners
MIDiA was the first to quantify the global revenue contribution of the Artists Direct (i.e. Independent Artists, DIY etc.) last year when it published its annual market shares report. Total Artist Direct revenue continued to grow in 2018 and at $643 million was up an impressive 35% on 2017, i.e. more than three times faster than the market. Unlike the rest of the market, Artists Direct revenue growth is accelerating in both percentage and absolute terms, with market share up from 2.7% in 2017 to 3.4% in 2018.
It was another great year for the recorded music business, with streaming consolidating its role as the industry engine room.
MIDiA predictions for 2019
Global recorded revenues will grow once again in 2019 – this rebound has a good number of years left in it. Label revenues of $25 Bn (where the market was at in 2000 before the decline) is certainly a realistic target although well short of the $50 Bn if markets had risen with inflation.
Streaming growth will slow in the big mature markets (US, UK) offset by growth in Japan, Germany, Brazil, Mexico. Overall market growth, though still strong, will be slower than in 2018.
2019 will be a coming of age year for Artists Direct, label services companies, JVs and other alternative models that have been establishing themselves in recent years as artist and their managements take advantage of these new opportunities.
